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| The duplication of aces after 43S certainly explains why S is preferred in most of the comparison positions discussed in this thread. I cited it myself in an allusion to 64R-43 when I orginally proposed S as the best play here.
But S is not the best play. So does the duplication somehow work in reverse here, making S worse rather than better? More likely, there is something else going on that overrides the advantages of duplication. I wonder whether the threat of White’s escape is not that something. When White makes a point on Blue’s head, and Blue fails to hit the return shot, White is favored to complete the escape of his back checker. After that, the entire character of the game will change. In the follow-up, White will find it much easier to contain Blue’s checker when White owns his 5pt. After 43Z, POH is still powerful, but it will be easier for Blue to escape with the 5pt open. And when he does escape, the race may still be close. In 64R-43S, your opponent’s escape is not immediate after he rolls one of his POH numbers. The same POH numbers are there, but they swing less. Mike |