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3a5a, cube at 2, 3-1 backgame, bearoff 22 to play ROLLOUT

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Tuesday, 7 August 2012, at 4:07 p.m.

In Response To: 3a 5a cube then play 22 (ah_clem)

Stacking 'em up on the deuce point is the preferred move. Those double blots really hurt Blue's winning and gammon chances.

That said, bearing two off increases blue's backgammon chances. AtS, this is irrelevant, but backgammons are enough of a factor that taking off two is only a small (.012) error for money. Chow on the position by taking away some of white's timing and taking off two becomes correct for money play. (see variant)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 151 5 point match pip: 32 score: 2 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bCbDBa------------bbbbb--:1:-1:1:22:2:0:0:5:10
Blue to play 22

1.	XG Roller++	4/2(4)	eq: +0.446
	Player: Opponent: 67.30% (G:46.58% B:24.41%) 32.70% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.	XG Roller++	4/Off(2)	eq: +0.371 (-0.075)
	Player: Opponent: 65.77% (G:41.46% B:31.76%) 34.23% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

Money play variant

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 151 Unlimited Game Jacoby pip: 32 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bCbDBa------------bbbbb--:1:-1:1:22:0:0:1:0:10
Blue to play 22

1.	Rollout1	4/2(4)	eq: +0.800
	Player: Opponent: 67.88% (G:47.97% B:9.81%) 32.12% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.793...+0.807) - [98.0%] Duration: 5 minutes 01 second
2.	Rollout1	4/Off(2)	eq: +0.788 (-0.012)
	Player: Opponent: 65.66% (G:42.57% B:20.28%) 34.34% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.779...+0.797) - [2.0%] Duration: 5 minutes 50 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

Variant with White lacking timing (money play)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 136 Unlimited Game Jacoby pip: 32 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bCbDB-------------bbcbb--:1:-1:1:22:0:0:1:0:10
Blue to play 22

1.	4-ply	4/Off(2)	eq: +0.940
	Player: Opponent: 70.19% (G:47.62% B:16.48%) 29.81% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.	4-ply	4/2(4)	eq: +0.894 (-0.047)
	Player: Opponent: 70.90% (G:49.84% B:7.98%) 29.10% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

Messages In This Thread

• 3a 5a cube then play 22
  ah_clem -- Monday, 6 August 2012, at 3:09 p.m.
  • 3a 5a cube then play 22
    Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 6 August 2012, at 4:48 p.m.
  • 3a 5a cube then play 22
    neilkaz -- Monday, 6 August 2012, at 5:23 p.m.
    • 3a 5a cube then play 22
      ah_clem -- Monday, 6 August 2012, at 6:42 p.m.
      • 3a 5a cube then play 22
        neilkaz -- Monday, 6 August 2012, at 8:03 p.m.
        • 3a 5a cube then play 22
          ah_clem -- Monday, 6 August 2012, at 8:19 p.m.
  • 3a5a, cube at 2, 3-1 backgame, bearoff 22 to play ROLLOUT
    ah_clem -- Tuesday, 7 August 2012, at 4:07 p.m.
    • 3a5a, cube at 2, 3-1 backgame, bearoff 22 to play ROLLOUT
      ah_clem -- Tuesday, 7 August 2012, at 6:39 p.m.
      • 3a5a, cube at 2, 3-1 backgame, bearoff 22 to play ROLLOUT
        Taper_Mike -- Thursday, 9 August 2012, at 5:05 a.m.