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31P-43S-31 — Unlimited Games — 3-ply XG2 Rollout

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Thursday, 16 August 2012, at 1:02 a.m.

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		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 160 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 163 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--aBD-B---dE--ac-e----B-:0:0:1:31:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 31

1.	Rollout1	24/21 6/5	eq: +0.1157
	Player: Opponent: 52.95% (G:13.74% B:0.59%) 47.05% (G:12.36% B:0.51%) Conf.: ±0.0022 (+0.1135...+0.1179) - [64.1%] Duration: 11 hours 57 minutes
2.	Rollout1	24/20	eq: +0.1151 (-0.0006)
	Player: Opponent: 52.89% (G:13.52% B:0.58%) 47.11% (G:12.23% B:0.49%) Conf.: ±0.0022 (+0.1129...+0.1173) - [35.9%] Duration: 11 hours 45 minutes
3.	Rollout2	8/4*	eq: +0.0890 (-0.0267)
	Player: Opponent: 51.92% (G:17.28% B:0.82%) 48.08% (G:14.74% B:1.04%) Conf.: ±0.0053 (+0.0837...+0.0943) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 49 minutes
1 62208 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 83497021 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 83497021 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Rollout by Taper_Mike 2012-Aug-15 eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03 31P-43S-31-tm.xgp 31P-43S-31 [E U0.6 A27] "<=62*15

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

31P-43S-31 — Unlimited Games

Bot	Seed	Equity	Nacbracs	Link
GnuBg 2-ply	1061105775	+117.6	[U E6] /15	BgOnline.org
XG 2.03 3-ply, Cubes: XGR	83497021	+115.7	[E U0.6 A27] "<=62*15	Taper_Mike (above)

With only 8 checkers in the zone, it is not worth breaking the 8pt just to hit loose. But if you give Blue a spare builder on his 8pt, hitting becomes correct by a large amount. XGR++ then has either splitting trailing by 0.115. Having decided not to hit, Blue should match his opponent’s major split. Splitting to the 20pt duplicates the 3 White needs to anchor, and slots the best anchor, but it also puts a target on the point White wants most to make. Splitting to the 21pt gives White a less desirable target, and allows Blue to diversify up front. But it diversifies White’s numbers, giving him a good 2. These factors balance almost perfectly to make it a toss-up between the two splitting moves. Mike