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BGonline.org Forums
OT: experiment 'proves' poker is a game of chance
Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Friday, 24 August 2012, at 10:39 p.m.
Gerhard Meyer is a psychologist at the Institute of Psychology and Cognition Research, University of Bremen. He has published extensively on problem gambling -- addiction, causes, treatment, effects, prevention. His most recent co-authored article, however, "Is Poker a Game of Skill or Chance? A Quasi-Experimental Study," claims to present evidence persuasive to the authors' conclusion that "poker should be regarded as a game of chance, at least under certain basic conditions."
From the abstract:
Adopting a quasi-experimental approach, the present study examined the extent to which the influence of poker playing skill was more important than card distribution. Three average players and three experts sat down at a six-player table and played 60 computer-based hands of the poker variant "Texas Hold'em" for money. In each hand, one of the average players and one expert received (a) better-than-average cards (winner's box), (b) average cards (neutral box) and (c) worse-than-average cards (loser's box). The standardized manipulation of the card distribution controlled the factor of chance to determine differences in performance between the average and expert groups. Overall, 150 individuals participated in a "fixed-limit" game variant, and 150 individuals participated in a "no-limit" game variant. ANOVA results showed that experts did not outperform average players in terms of final cash balance. Rather, card distribution was the decisive factor for successful poker playing.Comments at Neuroskeptic: http://neuroskeptic.blogspot.com/2012/08/is-poker-game-of-skill-or-luck.html
Article abstract: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22892961
The full text is paywalled.
Offhand, I think it's safe to say that the experiment and conclusions have some obvious flaws. But have it.
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