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BGonline.org Forums
New Stick Challenge
Posted By: Joe Russell
Date: Sunday, 2 September 2012, at 1:13 a.m.
I have tremendous respect for Bill Phipps as a person and backgammon player and value his opinions and insights. He is brilliant,articulate, honest, and ethical. I do not think he is on a witch hunt. I believe he is only trying to find the truth and he is basing his opinion on having a firm grasp of probability. He believes that Stick has cheated, based on very strong statistical evidence that supports his claim. He has every right to be of that opinion and he is right that if Stick has cheated he has cheated not only the players he played against but all of the top players that are vying to be the best as well as the backgammon community as a whole. He may have even encouraged some people to quit playing as they see the gulf between them and the best as too great. It is important to the community as a whole to know what to aim at or compare themselves to.
I, while having become more open to the possibility, still believe that Stick has not cheated. In my life and my career I have seen many things that looked impossible happen. There is a saying; 'where there's smoke there's fire'. In the vast majority of cases this it true. But, several different things can create smoke or smoke-like effects without there being a fire involved. I have seen things happen in backgammon that you would not believe. I have played 10 consecutive matches averaging under 2.5 and 10 consecutive matches averaging over 6 within the last two years. I mentioned one of the greatest outliers I have ever witnessed was my late wife averaging 1.9 (GNU) in three 7-point matches, after not having played for 20 years.
The question is how could he average 2.0 online when he is a 4.x player live? I think the answer is that he is not a 4.x player live. That is the outlier. The sample size is relatively small and there are many other factors involved, other than trying to play for your best PR.
I suggest a new challenge. I assert that Stick is better than a 4.x player live and those results have been an outlier. I will lay 2-1 for a sizable sum that Stick can better those results by .3 in 10 or more live 7-point matches. I will bet even money that he can better the 4.x by .6.
While I realize that it is hard to fathom a 2.0 online-player, playing 4.x live, I think it is within the realm of possibility, based on a fairly small live sample and the other factors. Character witnesses are called in a court of law because the known character of the accused is often a very important factor in deciding their guilt or innocence. Stick has never given anyone reason to question his character that I am aware of. If this discussion was about Bill Phipps, I would defend him as ardently as I have defended Stick. I believe in Stick's character, but am open to the possibility that I am wrong. But, it will have to be proven.
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