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Lowest contact double/take equity

Posted By: Ray Kershaw
Date: Wednesday, 19 September 2012, at 5:13 a.m.

Daniel Murphy asks (Sept 18) what is the lowest equity for the favorite with a correct double/take in a money game contact position.

My book Backgammon Funfair gives Kauder Paradox (double/beaver) positions where the player on roll has between 11 and 21 hits. The 19 hits position is only just a double/beaver. The following position has moved one checker of the player on roll from his 1pt to his 2pt. It is double/take with equity of about 0.02. I expect a lower equity could be found.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 96
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 91
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-CC-CBB------aa-ba-dbac-B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 50.21% (G:25.74% B:1.09%) 50.44% (G:26.23% B:1.38%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 49.79% (G:9.50% B:0.33%) 49.56% (G:9.82% B:0.35%)
Cubeless Equities +0.174 +0.366
Cubeful Equities
No double:-0.017 (-0.039)±0.005 (-0.022..-0.012)
Double/Take:+0.022±0.009 (+0.014..+0.031)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.978)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 57926656
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Beaver Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 12 minutes 27 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02

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