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Two-part problem

Posted By: Igor
Date: Saturday, 29 September 2012, at 11:58 p.m.

In Response To: Two-part problem (Timothy Chow)

1. The first thing that came to my mind is if I were white and got cubed this is an easy take. AtS white has ~23% gammonless take point, and the position does not look that gammonish to me, so the actual take point should be around 24-25%. With even race and white having stronger board, I don't see blue even close to be a ~70% favorite, white should not have much trouble entering and with 1pt made blue would have difficult time containing the white checker.

How many market losers do we have? We probably lose the market if we make 4pt or 5pt and white dances. A quick careless count: 24 rolls that make either 4pt or 5pt times 16 dances by white -- that's well under 25%, so let's take another roll.

Now, if we had 4pt or 5pt made instead of 1pt, I would certainly turn the cube.

2. With white having strong board and race being even one of our priorities is to not get hit. Let's count again.

10/4 8/4 gives white 12 "enter and hit" rolls while 20/10 gives white 5 "enter and hit" rolls

I'd choose the latter bases on that count alone.

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