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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Friday, 16 November 2007, at 5:33 a.m.

In Response To: More doubles doubles (Stick)

Again I am kicking myself for not holding strong -- it was a good warmup for NY when Kit & I rape face. I think I have problems expressing why one play is better than another, sometimes I feel I just know it is. The 8pt is too valuable to break here and 11/9* only leaves 4 immediate flyers, both of which could be used constructively otherwise. The other play also leaves 4 flyers and one less blot but cedes the 8pt. Not worth it, my guns will be blazing in NY, you've been warned, side bets are on!

gnubg141


 '1X2X2X2X2X1X1X ' ' '2O

3X '1O3O '2O2O2O1X '2O '

user130

Position ID: 2rYCBDh0tjEDQA Match ID: QYnkAAAAAAAA

1. Rollout bar/24 11/9* 4/3 Eq.: +0.8278

0.7537 0.4102 0.0723 - 0.2463 0.0935 0.0154 CL +0.9233 CF +0.8278

[0.0077 0.0084 0.0065 - 0.0077 0.0028 0.0041 CL 0.0289 CF 0.0332]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

406 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1041373738 and quasi-random dice

Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

2. Rollout bar/23* 8/7 4/3 Eq.: +0.7605 ( -0.0673)

0.7184 0.4207 0.0853 - 0.2816 0.0809 0.0083 CL +0.8851 CF +0.7605

[0.0047 0.0065 0.0049 - 0.0047 0.0026 0.0015 CL 0.0150 CF 0.0183]

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

406 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1041373738 and quasi-random dice

Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

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