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One (two, three?) too many good choices

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Sunday, 30 September 2012, at 6:23 p.m.

In Response To: One (two, three?) too many good choices (Igor)

Let's look at the hitting plays first. We can PoH with 8/3* 6/3, or we can play 10/7* and look around for a 5. White has a stronger board so we don't want to play too loosely; hitting twice looks too loose, so the only play involving 10/7* that I'd consider is 20/15 10/7*.

If we don't hit then the two plausible plays I see are the completely safe 20/15 13/10 or making the 5pt with 10/5 8/5. (15/10 seems too stiff; there's no 3 I like.) If we play 20/15 then I don't think 10/7* is better than 13/10. Again, a blot-hitting contest seems to favor White; I think we're better off building assets and waiting for a later opportunity to counterattack.

So now we're down to three plays: 8/3* 6/3, 10/5 8/5, and 20/15 13/10. Between 8/3* 6/3 and 10/5 8/5, I prefer 10/5 8/5. Though 8/3* 6/3 hits and duplicates White's 3's to hit back, it still leaves a lot of return shots. The game is going to go on for a while and I'd rather make the better point.

Should we just make the 5pt? It leaves two blots and strips the 8pt. It could be the correct play—making the 5pt often is—but I slightly prefer 20/15 13/10, consolidating our position and challenging White to do something.

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