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QF #1?

Posted By: David Rockwell
Date: Friday, 16 November 2007, at 7:16 p.m.

In Response To: QF #1? (Stick)

I have some previously compiled analysis on this one (see below). I play 8-3, 6-3 but I believe it is very close. I haven't personally done any rollouts on this one, so I am anxious to see Stick's rollouts.

What I find interesting is not which play is better, but why 24-21, 13-8 is a reasonable choice.

On the next roll:

opponent makes an advanced anchor with 11 rolls (2-1, 3-2, 3-3, 4-1, 4-3 & 5-3) The 24-21, 13-8 split plays better in all of these cases since the 3 point is behind the anchor and therefore loses some of its value.

opponent makes a blocking point with 9 rolls (3-1, 6-1, 6-3, 6-4 & 6-6) The budding prime favors the preemptive 24-21, 13-8 split.

The relatively small advantage to 24-21, 13-8 after these 20 subsequent rolls almost makes up for the large loss from the 4 punishing POH numbers along with the smaller net disadvantge from forgoing the 3 point on the other tosses.

The need to split is almost as important as the value of the three point because of the threats on both sides of the board.

On a 5-3 opening roll, opponent will not threaten to make an advanced anchor or blocking point with the same frequency, so 24-21, 13-8 is considerably less appealing.

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