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Hit or Go?, is there a magic formula for this?

Posted By: Robert Andersson
Date: Tuesday, 6 November 2012, at 10:30 a.m.

Is there a formula for solving this problem? We know that we need to gain half as wins wins as loses gammons. But I was thinking if there is any correlation between the distance of our last checker to our own sixpoint +1 roll and the opponents average number of rolls to bear off(His EPC/8,16)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 21 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 76 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBBBCC------------b--bAc-:1:1:1:35:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 35

1.	Rollout1	6/1 5/2	eq: -0,987
	Player: Opponent: 8,62% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) 91,38% (G:19,01% B:0,23%) Conf.: ± 0,001 (-0,989...-0,986) - [100,0%] Duration: 1 minute 03 seconds
2.	Rollout1	23/15	eq: -1,020 (-0,033)
	Player: Opponent: 0,00% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) 100,00% (G:1,99% B:0,00%) Conf.: ± 0,000 (-1,020...-1,020) - [0,0%] Duration: 14,0 seconds
3.	Rollout1	6/1 4/1	eq: -1,049 (-0,061)
	Player: Opponent: 6,86% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) 93,14% (G:20,95% B:0,30%) Conf.: ± 0,001 (-1,050...-1,047) - [0,0%] Duration: 1 minute 47 seconds
4.	Rollout1	23/20 6/1	eq: -1,057 (-0,069)
	Player: Opponent: 2,27% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) 97,73% (G:11,00% B:0,02%) Conf.: ± 0,001 (-1,057...-1,056) - [0,0%] Duration: 17,6 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 76008854 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

Messages In This Thread

• Hit or Go?, is there a magic formula for this?
  Robert Andersson -- Tuesday, 6 November 2012, at 10:30 a.m.
  • Hit or Go?, is there a magic formula for this?
    Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 6 November 2012, at 3:32 p.m.
    • Hit or Go?, is there a magic formula for this?
      Stick -- Tuesday, 6 November 2012, at 3:52 p.m.
      • Hit or Go?, is there a magic formula for this?
        poseidon -- Tuesday, 6 November 2012, at 6:51 p.m.
        • Hit or Go?, is there a magic formula for this?
          Stick -- Tuesday, 6 November 2012, at 8:02 p.m.
          • Hit or Go?, is there a magic formula for this?
            Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 6 November 2012, at 8:44 p.m.
            • Hit or Go?, is there a magic formula for this?
              Stick -- Tuesday, 6 November 2012, at 8:50 p.m.
              • Hit or Go?, is there a magic formula for this?
                Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 7 November 2012, at 2:36 p.m.
          • +1 *NM*
            poseidon -- Wednesday, 7 November 2012, at 8:39 a.m.
          • Hit or Go?, is there a magic formula for this?
            Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 8 November 2012, at 1:15 a.m.
        • Hit or Go?, is there a magic formula for this?
          konstantin -- Thursday, 8 November 2012, at 12:07 a.m.
      • Hit or Go?, is there a magic formula for this?
        neilkaz -- Tuesday, 6 November 2012, at 7:15 p.m.
  • Hit or Go?, is there a magic formula for this?
    ah_clem -- Tuesday, 6 November 2012, at 4:20 p.m.
  • Gammons Per Pip x Distance to bear in +1
    Mr Majestyk -- Wednesday, 7 November 2012, at 4:14 p.m.
    • Gammons Per Pip x Distance to bear in +1
      Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 7 November 2012, at 5:42 p.m.
      • Gammons Per Pip x Distance to bear in +1
        Mr Majestyk -- Wednesday, 7 November 2012, at 6:27 p.m.
        • Gammons Per Pip x Distance to bear in +1
          Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 7 November 2012, at 7:06 p.m.
          • Gammons Per Pip x Distance to bear in +1
            Mr Majestyk -- Wednesday, 7 November 2012, at 11:27 p.m.
            • Gammons Per Pip x Distance to bear in +1
              konstantin -- Wednesday, 7 November 2012, at 11:57 p.m.
              • Gammons Per Pip x Distance to bear in +1
                Mr Majestyk -- Thursday, 8 November 2012, at 12:14 a.m.
                • Gammons Per Pip x Distance to bear in +1
                  konstantin -- Friday, 9 November 2012, at 12:48 p.m.
              • Gammons Per Pip x Distance to bear in +1
                Mr Majestyk -- Thursday, 8 November 2012, at 12:51 p.m.
            • Gammons Per Pip x Distance to bear in +1
              Bob Koca -- Thursday, 8 November 2012, at 1:02 a.m.
              • Gammons Per Pip x Distance to bear in +1
                Mr Majestyk -- Thursday, 8 November 2012, at 10:39 a.m.
                • Gammons Per Pip x Distance to bear in +1
                  Bob Koca -- Thursday, 8 November 2012, at 8:39 p.m.
                  • Gammons Per Pip x Distance to bear in +1
                    Mr Majestyk -- Thursday, 8 November 2012, at 10:32 p.m.