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Help with score based race cube.

Posted By: Bill Calton
Date: Saturday, 10 November 2012, at 4:49 p.m.

This appears to be fundamental yet is way over my head.

Below is the position with comments as they appeared on my blog (http://bigmoneybill.blogspot.com/2012/11/mohrp.html). Seeking help.

I lead 3 away 4 away and am on roll. Cube action?

is mohrp

score: 3
pip: 135
7 point match
pip: 124
score: 4

is Chutzpah
XGID=-----CC-CBA-fC---bbbc-----:0:0:1:00:4:3:0:7:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.64% (G:0.04% B:0.00%) 74.72% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.36% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 25.28% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.493 +1.487
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.822 (-0.061)
xg Double/Take:+0.882
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.118)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

This one still confuses me. I didn't double, thinking this is an easy money take and his take point at this score is lower than money so I should be more conservative with the cube and wait.

And yet, this is a small double for money and a larger double at this score. What is going on? The short answer is I don't know but here is a guess. Opponent's low takepoint is based on the power of his recube leverage. In a contact position the trailer will have more opportunity to rewhip than in a straight race.

The above makes some sense to me - but isn't my takepoint on a rewhip a very high 40%? Even though a race with no contact where I can win two points is exactly what I want, don't I still need to be careful since he can turn around a long race very easily and all of a sudden I am dropping or playing for the match? I still don't get it.

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