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I think this is a little closer to the truth.

Posted By: Mr Majestyk
Date: Sunday, 11 November 2012, at 1:42 p.m.

White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 21 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 76 score: 0 Blue is Player 1 XGID=-BBBBCC------------b--bAc-:1:1:1:35:0:0:3:0:10 Blue to play 35

1. XG Roller++ 6/1 5/2 eq: -0.989 Player: Opponent: 8.66% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 91.34% (G:19.03% B:0.22%) 2. XG Roller++ 23/15 eq: -1.020 (-0.031) Player: Opponent: 0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 100.00% (G:1.99% B:0.00%) 3. 4-ply 6/1 4/1 eq: -1.054 (-0.065) Player: Opponent: 6.75% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 93.25% (G:20.96% B:0.31%) 4. 4-ply 23/20 6/1 eq: -1.057 (-0.068) Player: Opponent: 2.32% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 97.68% (G:11.14% B:0.04%) 5. 3-ply 23/18 6/3 eq: -1.073 (-0.084) Player: Opponent: 0.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 99.98% (G:7.34% B:0.00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

My only interest here, is how often blue gets gammoned after 6/1 5/2. I ballooned my last attempt but I think this looks a little better.

Your thoughts are welcome, here are mine for the second time of asking,

Step 1. 33.8/8.1667 = 4.13

White's EPC is closer to a 5 roll position in a race bearoff but here, blue is bearing in so, his average roll is 8.1667 not 7.

Step 2. 39% of 1/36 * 18.8% = 0.2

White's EPC is closer to 33.6 factoring in 66 reaching a 2 roll position. Thus 33.6/8.1557 = 4.11

3. 18/4.11 = 4.38

Blue needs 17 pips +1 and will get gammoned when he rolls 4.38 pips or less per roll. So, white will be smiling with glee if blue rolls 31 21 11; 5 rolls and a little less than half of 41 & 32 resulting in blue getting gammoned a little less than 7 rolls in 36.

NBM

NB: I've tried this approach when blue runs with the 53 and it works out fine.