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Vegas blotting 61 play

Posted By: poseidon
Date: Sunday, 18 November 2012, at 11:22 a.m.

In Response To: Vegas blotting 61 play (neilkaz)

According to Neils numbers take point for blue is 100 - (50+6*6)= 14%.

1) If blue takes off 2 checkers, had a fast bear off, and gets hit from white his cubeless winning chances would be around 22%. Now it should be much lower because the bear off is quite bad, similar to having a fast bear off with 4 checkers off, instead of 5 which gives around 15% chances for blue. It is definately a take for blue.

2) If blue takes one checker off, then cubeless wins for blue are similar to having 3 off with fast bear off and one on the roof, which is around 11% and makes it a clear pass.

The question is if the wins of scenario 1 can finally compensate for the 2 more hitting number it offers to white which translates to 5,56% more hits.

15 hits with 15% equity equals to 6,25 %, however many of those win will never materialize as on the way many times the winning chances will be lower than the take point. For example White takes off 3 checkers and has not opened any point yet, or white takes off some checkers and opens one point while blue does not enter. All those winning chances will have to be "passed" by blue, and since blue's winning chances (15%) is quite close to his take point i estimate that those cases will be quite a lot. This makes 6,25 quite bigger than the real amount of wins that blue will have against a perfect opponent, and if i had to guess I would say we should expect less than the half of those 6,25 (e.g. 3%) of wins to materialize.

Finally we have to calculate the impact of gammons for blue with gammon value of a bit more than 0,6. Is the gammon rate difference between 2off and 1off more than (5,56-3)/0,6 = 4,26? I suspect not.

Ps I don't think our play will affect our winning chances, given we don't get hit, by a lot so as to calculate it here.

PS 2 Please correct all my mistakes :-)

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