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BGonline.org Forums
I'll take a crack at it
Posted By: Mr Majestyk In Response To: Vegas blotting 61 play (neilkaz)
Date: Sunday, 18 November 2012, at 11:31 p.m.
Neil, your insight would be most appreciated.
After 6/5 (position left) I figured White's wastage to be 13 + 29 inboard + 25 for the man on the bar = 67. White's winning chances with a 57-67 deficit is approx 12% Metric. White's wastage after 1off is 12 + 28 inboard + 25 and her winning chances are 57-65 or 15% Metric. Obviously, you wouldn't crunch these sorts of numbers in real time orb, unless your a cretin like me who forgot the reference pos for 4 & 5 checkers off.
White is Player 2
score: 11
pip: 8515 point match pip: 41
score: 7
Blue is Player 1XGID=-CaBE-B------a---a-bbbbbb-:1:-1:1:61:7:11:0:15:10 Blue to play 61
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03
11 or 13 shots?
White's winning chances after 6/5 are 30.5 * 88 = 27%. After 1off they're 36.1 * 85 approx 31%.
How often does white win a gammon?
42/8.1667 = 5.14. White requires 25+1 pips and is estimated to get gammoned 26/5.14 = 5 pips per roll or less. We should exclude 31 & 32 as hitting numbers, which leaves 41 21 11 or 13.8%. Blue will hit 30.5% next turn and will hang a round for another 1 or 2 turns in the hope blue rolls a combination 2. I'd estimate approx 13.8-8 = 6% * .6GV (I looked it up, lol).
Blue's single win differential is 73 - 69 = 4%; a tad better than his 3.6 gammons.
When White hits after 1off and reaches the optimum bearoff Blue's winning chances are 15% and his take point is 13.5%. Should White redouble immediately after hitting? 11% of his take point i.e. 1.5/13.5 appears way too high? How many checkers does White need to peel before it becomes a pass?
I get the feeling I'm missing something here.
What would I do otb? Probably apply Tardieu's Rule!
Good position
NBM
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