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How to estimate chances of hitting shot?
Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Monday, 26 November 2012, at 4:23 p.m.
In Response To: How to estimate chances of hitting shot? (AP)
White has 8 shakes that leave a blot, and if she does then blue will be about 1/3 to hit. So figure ~ 1/4 * 1/3 to hit a shot immediately.
White clears the 11 point with 7 shakes (I'm counting 11 and 22 which don't actually clear, but are close enough) , say 1/6th of the time. When she doesn't, blue will have another chance to hit. I'll truncate this after 3 cycles to get the following approximation:
1/12 + 5/6(1/12) + 5/6(5/6)1/12
Since this is clearly less than 1/4, I'll say this is a pass, and since gammons are few I'll say it's a cash.

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