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How to estimate chances of hitting shot?

Posted By: poseidon
Date: Monday, 26 November 2012, at 11:34 p.m.

In Response To: How to estimate chances of hitting shot? (Mr Majestyk)

Its less than 8% as Blue could roll any of his 7 in 36 good rolls which translates to 8 - (8 x 19.4%) = 6.5%

8% is a very good estimation of blue's chances to hit a shot next turn. I don't understand why you subtract from this number, the percentage of good rolls for white? Those number are independent.

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