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How to estimate chances - RO data

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Tuesday, 27 November 2012, at 11:07 p.m.

In Response To: How to estimate chances of hitting shot? (Daniel Murphy)

Gnubg's "show statisics" rollout features include statistics on hits. I don't know for sure that it works properly, but here's what I got from a rollout with several thousand trials:

 White Blue Percent games with hits 21.06% 9.66% Average move number for first hit 4.56 7.33

I believe this means that White hit a Blue checker in 21.06% of games, and on average that hit was made on about White's second roll after Blue's double/take (4.56 divided by 2 = 2.28). Blue hit White in 9.66% of games (a reminder that White may be forced to give up his anchor for Blue gives up his point), on average between Blue's third and fourth roll after double/take (7.33 divided by 2 = 3.66).

In the rollout White won 24.11% of all games (and lost only 0.38% gammons). That's short of a take, but White gave Blue a taken 8-cube about 3.5% of the time, which should be enough cube vig to turn a narrow pass into a narrow take. The rollout reported 22.58% "cubeless" wins for White, and DT equity = 0.9898 for Blue.

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