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BGonline.org Forums
Give more shots to get more shots?
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: Give more shots to get more shots? (John O'Hagan)
Date: Friday, 30 November 2012, at 1:29 p.m.
White's roll Immediate hits after bar/20 15/13 Immediate hits after bar/18 bgcolor="black" 66 0 0 55 0 0 65 28 40 64 28 40 54 28 40 44 15 23 31 0 0 21 0 0 63 0 0 61 0 0 53 0 0 51 0 0 43 0 0 41 0 0 33 0 0 62 0 0 (and on the bar) 52 0 0 (and on the bar) 42 0 0 (and on the bar) 32 0 0 (and on the bar) 22 11 2 (and on the bar) 11 0 0 (and on the bar) On 2/36 numbers, the play doesn't matter.
On 7/36 numbers that blot, bar/18 gains 35/1296 = 2.7% more immediate hits (net increase, counting the loss when White rolls 2-2). This is a huge plus for bar/18.
On 17/36 numbers that clear or safety the outfield blot without hitting, bar/18 gains if Blue rolls a 2 or 1-1 next, playing 20/18, or if Blue does not roll a 2 and White rolls 63 53 43, but loses after no 2 and White rolls 61 51 41 31. My guess is that bar/18 is better in these sequences, but not by much.
On 10/36 numbers, White hits with 62 52 42 32 22 and 11. But only on 2-2 do these sequences lose any immediate hits. For future chances, Blue is a small favorite (55%) to recover from the hit by rolling any 6, especially 6-1 and including 5-1, or any other 5. My rough guess here, then, is that bar/18 is a loser on about half of 10/36 numbers.
Looks like bar/18 should be best, with the immediate gain on 7/36 numbers outweighing the future loss on about half of 10/36 numbers.
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