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BGonline.org Forums
The kind of position JOH likes to post
Posted By: John O'Hagan In Response To: The kind of position JOH likes to post (Timothy Chow)
Date: Saturday, 1 December 2012, at 8:16 p.m.
Let's see. Leader's redoubling window is from around 88% to 91%. Per Seret's pipple count, Blue's p c is 830 which translates to an EPC of about 67.7.
Estimating White's EPC involves some guesswork. With TWO outside checkers the EPC is 3.5 x # of checkers + outside checkers combined pip count - 4. Here you have 3 outside which probably reduces your wastage a bit so I'll guess -3 rather than -4. OTOH, White doesn't really have a rolls position in his inner board so I'll penalize him 3 pips for that. So I'll go with 3.5 x # of checkers + outside checkers combined pip count = 52.5 + 31 = 83.5.
If it was a pips vs. pips position with these same EPC's, the raw pip counts would be 7 pips less for each side = 60.7 to 76.5. Kleinman's formula gives the leader about 89% cubeless in this case. Neither side has a rolls position so I don't know what, if any, adjustment is needed for the different position type. For now, I'll assume no adjustment is needed. Maybe Bob Koca, Majestyk, or someone else can help out here.
It looks like a take for the trailer and I don't have a whole lot of faith in my above estimates so I think the leader should follow the "when in doubt, don't redouble" advice.
Skill differences needed to redouble? Not sure in ELO rating terms but I think a 1.5 PR difference would be enough for the leader to have a correct redouble.
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