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Racing Question

Posted By: Bill Calton
Date: Wednesday, 19 December 2012, at 2:41 p.m.

I recently discovered this sweet chart on racing chances by Tom Keith, which can be found on his site. (http://www.bkgm.com/rgb/rgb.cgi?view+1203)

My question is on the racing chances for short races, like 20 pips or 30 pips. The chart implies 65% to win for 20-20 and 64% for 30-30. These winning chances seem low. I pasted some positions where the winning chances are higher. Does anyone have insight into this?

Thanks,

Bill

******* 20 Pips *******

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 20
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 20
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=----ABA------------aba----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 69.68% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 69.68% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.32% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 30.32% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.394 +0.787
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.571 (-0.108)
Double/Take:+0.680
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.320)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 20
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 20
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=--AAAAA------------aaaaa--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 70.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 30.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.400 +0.800
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.571 (-0.115)
Double/Take:+0.685
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.315)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 20
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 20
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=--B-A-B------------b-a-b--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 70.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 29.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.405 +0.811
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.575 (-0.109)
Double/Take:+0.684
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.316)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02

******** 30 pips ********

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 30
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 30
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=----BBB------------bbb----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.42% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 65.42% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.58% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 34.58% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.308 +0.617
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.478
Double/Take:+0.467 (-0.010)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.522)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 1.9%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 30
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 30
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-AABAAB------------baabaa-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.81% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 67.81% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.19% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 32.19% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.356 +0.712
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.565 (-0.011)
Double/Take:+0.576
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.424)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 30
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 30
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-BBBBB--------------bbbbb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 67.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.01% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 32.01% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.360 +0.720
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.583 (-0.001)
Double/Take:+0.584
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.416)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02

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