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Variants

Posted By: Mr Majestyk
Date: Sunday, 30 December 2012, at 1:37 a.m.

In Response To: Cube action - RO (Casper van der Tak)





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 119
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 92
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=--BBABBC-a-a---b--AbccB-c-:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 73.69% (G:12.62% B:0.17%) 74.26% (G:12.88% B:0.18%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 26.31% (G:3.54% B:0.18%) 25.74% (G:3.30% B:0.16%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.565 +1.162
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.894 (-0.106)±0.008 (+0.886..+0.903)
Redouble/Take:+1.015 (+0.015)±0.011 (+1.004..+1.027)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:99.5%
Duration: 5 minutes 08 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

It would appear that even with the 4pt slotted (be it, awkwardly) this is still a small pass.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 119
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 92
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=--BB-CCB-a-a---b--AbccB-c-:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 73.70% (G:10.83% B:0.14%) 74.41% (G:11.56% B:0.16%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 26.30% (G:3.54% B:0.14%) 25.59% (G:3.44% B:0.15%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.547 +1.139
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.879 (-0.097)±0.008 (+0.871..+0.887)
Redouble/Take:+0.976±0.012 (+0.965..+0.988)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.024)
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 48 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

The quality of the pip-shift in this variant is huge; just look at those gammons cropped. I would infer this to be a combination of a crossover gained and the probability of filling the 4pt gap but also the ace as well! Without your follow-up I would have missed it, thx & happy new to you.

NBM

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