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An "unlucky" roll is one that causes you to blunder

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Sunday, 30 December 2012, at 10:56 p.m.

In Response To: An "unlucky" roll is one that causes you to blunder (Timothy Chow)

Eight mostly losing shots is a lot. Blue's got a pretty good position after 8/6 7/3. Many small numbers make the 4 point, a couple more (only 4-2?) make the ace, several doublets clear the opponent's bar point, and most numbers run a single checker from the opponent's bar point with little risk (very little if White is still on the bar, and only some if White gets a direct shot, hits, and must then try to contain the blot). Blue will regret 8/6 7/3 if White rolls 4-5 or 4-6 and, but less so, 4-1 or 4-3. That's 8/36 not mostly losing numbers.

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