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Rollout and variant

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 31 December 2012, at 11:49 p.m.

In Response To: An "unlucky" roll is one that causes you to blunder (Timothy Chow)

I think this is a difficult decision. OTB I broke anchor. The computer says this is a mistake. Had I been "lucky" enough to roll 51, breaking anchor would have been O.K., and perhaps best. 18/13 7/6 in the variant position also leaves 8 shots, and the alternative of 8/3 7/6 produces exactly the same position as the play 8/6 7/3 in the original position. Of course 18/13 7/6 includes the valuable crossover 7/6. Still, the tradeoffs here seem pretty subtle.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 113
Money session
Jacoby
pip: 102
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a-BB-CBCA---c-----Bcbcc---:1:-1:1:42:0:0:1:0:10
Blue to play 42

1.Rollout18/6 7/3eq: +0.425
Player:
Opponent:
70.32% (G:16.92% B:0.18%)
29.68% (G:5.17% B:0.22%)
Conf: 0.010 (+0.415...+0.435)
Duration: 29 minutes 38 seconds
2.Rollout118/16 18/14eq: +0.363 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent:
70.45% (G:15.02% B:0.21%)
29.55% (G:10.14% B:0.49%)
Conf: 0.010 (+0.353...+0.373)
Duration: 32 minutes 46 seconds
3.Rollout118/14 8/6eq: +0.344 (-0.081)
Player:
Opponent:
68.32% (G:16.45% B:0.27%)
31.68% (G:8.31% B:0.31%)
Conf: 0.010 (+0.334...+0.354)
Duration: 22 minutes 23 seconds
1 1046 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21


Variant:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 113
Money session
Jacoby
pip: 102
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a-BB-CBCA---c-----Bcbcc---:1:-1:1:15:0:0:1:0:10
Blue to play 15

1.Rollout118/13 7/6eq: +0.438
Player:
Opponent:
71.59% (G:18.95% B:0.23%)
28.41% (G:9.70% B:0.68%)
Conf: 0.010 (+0.428...+0.448)
Duration: 1 hour 31 minutes
2.Rollout18/3 7/6eq: +0.424 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
70.33% (G:16.93% B:0.16%)
29.67% (G:5.21% B:0.22%)
Conf: 0.009 (+0.415...+0.433)
Duration: 1 hour 27 minutes
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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