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BGonline.org Forums
Play 43
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: Play 43 (Mr Majestyk)
Date: Tuesday, 1 January 2013, at 10:27 p.m.
These kinds of positions always give me trouble. In the past I would always hit, which is sometimes very right but sometimes very wrong. Breaking the five-prime is costly.
What are the candidates? If we don't hit, then we'd like to stay back to catch White's blots. 4/1 looks too costly so it's either 21/14 or 17/10. 21/14 gives us good outfield coverage, which is important if White rolls 61 62 63 64; White hits with 65 and escapes entirely with 66. If we play 17/10 then White's 6's play better—only 66 gives us a direct shot—but White exposes another blot with 55 53 52 44 43 42. Overall 17/10 looks better to me. If White doesn't roll either a blotter or a 6 then we have another chance to attack White's straggler, perhaps with a more favorable roll.
If we hit then 17/14 is the only plausible 3. If we play 17/14 7/3*, then White dances with 16 rolls. Otherwise, I think only 62 is really bad for White, exposing another blot. (With 32 White doesn't have to expose another blot but I think she will, with the double hit bar/22* 6/4*.)
Hitting definitely gains when White dances, but it seems to me that it gives White a lot more good rolls. I'll try 17/10, but without confidence.
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