Position 1
        
 
           
 | | White is MisterPostman
score: 7
pip: 153 | | 9 point match | pip: 149
score: 4
Blue is blotto |
|
| XGID=-a-ABBCbC--aa----cbcbBB---:1:-1:1:22:4:7:0:9:10 |
| Blue to play 22 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | 8/4 6/4 3/1* | eq: -0.072 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 36.19% (G:14.27% B:0.43%)
63.81% (G:18.54% B:0.78%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | 8/2 3/1* | eq: -0.145 (-0.073) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 33.79% (G:12.53% B:0.39%)
66.21% (G:20.71% B:0.88%) | |
|
| 3. | 4-ply | 8/6 8/4 3/1* | eq: -0.136 (-0.064) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 33.36% (G:13.72% B:0.44%)
66.64% (G:18.56% B:0.63%) | |
|
| 4. | 4-ply | 8/6 5/3 5/1* | eq: -0.137 (-0.065) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 33.92% (G:12.88% B:0.39%)
66.08% (G:16.97% B:0.52%) | |
|
| 5. | 4-ply | 8/6 4/2(2) 3/1* | eq: -0.146 (-0.074) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 33.49% (G:12.94% B:0.35%)
66.51% (G:17.60% B:0.56%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
I played 8-2, 3-1, in hopes of being hit. I suppose the timing is bad either way (even if hit), so going forward may present the best hope.
Position 2
  
| | White is MisterPostman
score: 7
pip: 128 | | 9 point match | pip: 202
score: 4
Blue is blotto |
|
| XGID=---aCBB----A--b-bcbcbBC-AA:1:-1:1:21:4:7:0:9:10 |
| Blue to play 21 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | Bar/23 24/23 | eq: -0.296 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 32.10% (G:4.28% B:0.20%)
67.90% (G:35.90% B:2.03%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | Bar/23 22/21 | eq: -0.319 (-0.024) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 30.94% (G:4.25% B:0.18%)
69.06% (G:37.47% B:2.20%) | |
|
| 3. | 4-ply | Bar/24 5/3* | eq: -0.343 (-0.047) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 30.80% (G:2.83% B:0.11%)
69.20% (G:39.59% B:4.22%) | |
|
| 4. | 4-ply | Bar/24 11/9 | eq: -0.351 (-0.055) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 30.18% (G:3.17% B:0.12%)
69.82% (G:36.97% B:3.40%) | |
|
| 5. | 3-ply | Bar/24 4/2 | eq: -0.357 (-0.061) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 29.66% (G:3.43% B:0.17%)
70.34% (G:37.73% B:3.36%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
I played b-23, 22-21, on the theory that escaping with a 6 is good, and losing the 21 point bad. Nothing against the 23 pt, but the 2-3 backgame seems more likely to crunch in this position.
Position 3
   
| | White is MisterPostman
score: 7
pip: 87 | | 9 point match | pip: 198
score: 4
Blue is blotto |
|
| XGID=-AABC------------bebdCCbB-:1:-1:1:22:4:7:0:9:10 |
| Blue to play 22 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | 4/2(2) 3/1(2) | eq: -0.534 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 22.56% (G:1.01% B:0.03%)
77.44% (G:42.09% B:3.85%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | 4/2(3) 3/1 | eq: -0.545 (-0.011) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 22.06% (G:0.94% B:0.02%)
77.94% (G:44.35% B:3.94%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller+ | 24/22(2) 4/2 3/1 | eq: -0.576 (-0.042) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 20.22% (G:1.38% B:0.03%)
79.78% (G:59.42% B:1.74%) | |
|
| 4. | 4-ply | 24/22(2) 4/2(2) | eq: -0.598 (-0.064) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 19.14% (G:1.34% B:0.02%)
80.86% (G:60.83% B:1.83%) | |
|
| 5. | 3-ply | 24/22 4/2 3/1(2) | eq: -0.646 (-0.112) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 17.02% (G:0.96% B:0.02%)
82.98% (G:59.52% B:1.85%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
This is the most puzzling for me. Like the commenters, I played 24-22, 4-2, 3-1. I don't see how burying all these checkers can be constructive.