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61P-54S-66B-21 — Unlimited Games — 3-ply XG2 Rollout

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Tuesday, 8 January 2013, at 5:21 a.m.

In Response To: Rollout: 61P-54S-66B-21 (Timothy Chow)

–
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 136
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 158
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=------EbD---bD---bdeA---A-:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 21

1.Rollout124/22 6/5eq: -0.5720
Player:
Opponent:		35.73% (G:6.68% B:0.25%)
64.27% (G:17.39% B:0.54%)		Conf.: ±0.0062 (-0.5782...-0.5657) - [100.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 02 seconds
2.Rollout124/23 6/4eq: -0.6365 (-0.0645)
Player:
Opponent:		34.32% (G:6.63% B:0.25%)
65.68% (G:17.93% B:0.56%)		Conf.: ±0.0070 (-0.6435...-0.6294) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 52 seconds
3.Rollout16/5 6/4eq: -0.6460 (-0.0740)
Player:
Opponent:		34.98% (G:7.60% B:0.31%)
65.02% (G:22.05% B:0.98%)		Conf.: ±0.0098 (-0.6557...-0.6362) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 24 seconds
4.Rollout18/5eq: -0.6466 (-0.0746)
Player:
Opponent:		34.28% (G:7.32% B:0.27%)
65.72% (G:19.13% B:0.61%)		Conf.: ±0.0063 (-0.6529...-0.6403) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 19 seconds
5.Rollout113/11 6/5eq: -0.6585 (-0.0865)
Player:
Opponent:		34.93% (G:7.70% B:0.33%)
65.07% (G:22.52% B:1.19%)		Conf.: ±0.0102 (-0.6687...-0.6483) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 27 seconds
6.Rollout124/21eq: -0.6699 (-0.0979)
Player:
Opponent:		33.38% (G:5.63% B:0.21%)
66.62% (G:17.55% B:0.46%)		Conf.: ±0.0080 (-0.6779...-0.6618) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 41 seconds
 
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 88573469
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Rollout by Taper_Mike
2013-Jan-07
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03
61P-54S-66B-21-tm.xgp
61P-54S-66B-21  [E e64 &74 A75 $75 U98]  "<=5

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

61P-54S-66B-21 — Unlimited Games
Bot Seed Equity Nacbracs Link
XG 1.21 3-ply 2 –582 [E A57 e58 &86] '<2**1 Timothy Chow
XG 2.03 3-ply, Cubes: XGR 88573469 –572.0 [E e64 &74 A75 $87 U98] "<=5 Taper_Mike (above)

61P-54S-66B-21 — Nactation Key
FamilyNactationTraditional NotationNote
Slot$ 13/11, 6/5
Double slot& 6/5, 6/4
AttackA 8/5
EachE 24/22, 6/5
Eache 24/23, 6/4
UpU 24/21

Although there is still some variance left in the data for the 2nd-, 3rd-, and 4th-best plays, it is clear that E (Each) = 24/22 6/5 is best. The play XG1 ranks 2nd, A (Attack) = 8/5, comes in only 4th in the XG2 rollout.

John O’Hagan gives two reasons why advancing the rear checker might be important in this position.

  1. If White breaks his 8pt to attack or point inside, Blue’s 3pt checker is within direct range of any blot White leaves behind. More precisely, when White attacks the 5pt, the checker on the 3pt may get a direct return shot, or else serve as the start of an anchor. Conversely, when White attacks the 3pt, the checker on the 5pt may serve the same purposes.
  2. As John implies, if the 3pt becomes an anchor in the future, the checkers there can escape to the outfield with a 6.
To this I would add the obvious: all the other 2s are worse.

If you have a rollout of this position that you would like to share, please send me a copy by email, and/or post it here.

Thanks.

Mike

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