| 6 | |
|---|---|
| |
| 18 | |
| GNUBg Id: PwAAgAAAAQAAAA:UQkAAAAAAAAA XGID=-A---------------A------f-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10 | |
How does one estimate Blue's winning chances here?
My thought process was as follows. The only tool I know that seems remotely applicable here is EPC.
• Blue EPC Estimation: I consider the checker on the 1 point a very little 'stack' and use the Trice stack/straggler formula to get 3.5*2+17=24.
• Point of Last Take: Blue EPC + #Rolls-3, so 24+24/7-3=24.42
(Ramblings: When the player on roll has a pip position, you need to convert his EPC to # Rolls. I thought I would have to divide by 8.167, but the Stick EPC lesson says 7 so I will go with 7. I guess maybe 7 works better when converting to # Rolls because the pip position makes Blue less of a favorite than a pure roll position with the same EPC, but anyway it shouldn’t make a big difference in this specific position.)
• White EPC: 7*3+1=22, which is 2.42 EPC under POLT
• Blue can double if White is within 2 EPC, so according to this estimation it is a bare no double at money.
But the question is to estimate the winning % in the position. So just looking at the position, I figure somewhere between ~60-70%...no idea how to get a more refined guess than that. It’s just hard to believe that after such a wild goose chase to get some clue on money cube action, I still have to take one more swing in the dark to estimate GWC. There must be something better out there…