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Lessons I haven't learned

Posted By: Chase
Date: Monday, 14 January 2013, at 7:16 p.m.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 143 1 point match pip: 140 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---b-BC-D---cE-A-c-d-c----:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:1:10
Blue to play 22

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

No QF here -- just a simple position, the kind that comes up all the time. I won't even wait the usual 24 hours before posting the rollout; I've included it below.

But it's the type of position I frequently misplay. Indeed, over the board I thought, I bet XG makes the 9pt and volunteers a direct shot. But as often as I've seen the bots make this kind of play, I can never quite bring myself to do it.

It's not that I don't trust XG. I'm sure making the 9pt, and leaving the shot, is correct. It's just that I don't "feel it in my bones," and I hate committing to a play that goes against my instincts, which are, I'm ahead in the race, he's stuck back on my 3pt, and there are other flexible and productive alternatives available. No need to leave a shot, even if I know XG is likely going to scold me for it. And maybe my play actually is best this time.

So I make my play, get dinged for it -- it's a small error, but an error nonetheless -- and muse again about another of the lessons I haven't quite yet learned.

If any of you have thoughts about the position above, or about the general experience of resisting mimicking bot plays before you fully get your head wrapped around them -- or maybe you'd like to share some of your own "known blind spots" -- by all means share them.

But mostly I'm just musing out loud.

Silly game.

1.	Rollout1	13/9(2)	eq: +0.375
	Player: Opponent: 68.76% (G:9.69% B:0.73%) 31.24% (G:6.35% B:0.33%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.371...+0.379) - [100.0%] Duration: 20 minutes 43 seconds
2.	Rollout1	15/11 13/11(2)	eq: +0.356 (-0.020)
	Player: Opponent: 67.78% (G:5.18% B:0.28%) 32.22% (G:2.45% B:0.08%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.352...+0.359) - [0.0%] Duration: 19 minutes 31 seconds
3.	Rollout1	15/11 13/11 8/6	eq: +0.346 (-0.030)
	Player: Opponent: 67.28% (G:6.36% B:0.20%) 32.72% (G:2.49% B:0.12%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.342...+0.349) - [0.0%] Duration: 15 minutes 11 seconds
4.	Rollout1	15/13 8/4 6/4	eq: +0.316 (-0.059)
	Player: Opponent: 65.81% (G:6.38% B:0.39%) 34.19% (G:3.30% B:0.18%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.313...+0.320) - [0.0%] Duration: 18 minutes 46 seconds
5.	XG Roller++	13/11 8/4 6/4	eq: +0.271 (-0.104)
	Player: Opponent: 63.55% (G:9.82% B:0.39%) 36.45% (G:6.82% B:0.17%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

• Lessons I haven't learned
  Chase -- Monday, 14 January 2013, at 7:16 p.m.
  • Lessons I haven't learned
    Stick -- Monday, 14 January 2013, at 7:25 p.m.
  • Lessons I haven't learned
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 14 January 2013, at 10:36 p.m.
    • Lessons I haven't learned
      Chase -- Thursday, 17 January 2013, at 7:41 p.m.