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62 from the bar

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Thursday, 24 January 2013, at 7:23 a.m.

In Response To: 62 from the bar (smcrtorchs)

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White 59 Blue 94 Position ID: 924YEAC73QBEQA Match ID: UQkZAAAAAAAE

Diagram 1 Blue to play 62 from the bar GnuBg and XG both like moving 18/16, putting a blot squarely in White’s path. It was my mistake to assume that this was the primary purpose of the play. A careful analysis of the data in GnuBg’s Temperature Map tells another story. Blue does not gain in an exchange of hits. When White rolls a 5 or 6, Blue is usually better off having played 15/13 than 18/16. Out of the twenty rolls with a 5 or 6, only seven of them, 64, 63, 55, and 53, result in higher equity for Blue when he plays 18/16. The big advantage to moving 18/16 comes mostly on the low rolls.

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Diagram 2 Blue played bar/19, 18/16; White on roll This is the play the bots like. 31 is a disasterous anti-joker for White. His best move is 15/11, leaving a triple shot that actually makes Blue the favorite. White’s 21 is also awful. His best play is to hit inside, and then slide his blot forward to the 5pt. Blue gets a direct shot from the bar, and when he hits it, there are two other juicy White blots awaiting his attack. The swing on White’s 53 is also large. When Blue plays 15/13, as in Diagram 3, White can hit twice outside when he rolls 53. When Blue moves 18/16 instead, White can only hit once, and must leave 6 fly shots in return. Things settle down after that. 43 and 44 are whifs for White in Diagram 2, but hits in Diagram 3. 32 gives more return shots in Diagram 2 than in Diagram 3. 11 hits twice in Diagram 3, but only once in Diagram 2. 64, 63, 55, 33, and 32 all hurt a little bit less in Diagram 2 than in Diagram 3.

Blue played bar/19, 18/16 Position ID: u90AFAH3bhgQAA Match ID: EQEAAAAAAAAE

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Diagram 3 Blue played bar/19, 15/13; White on roll There are a few rolls by White that play better here — from Blue’s perspective — than in Diagram 2. That means that they hurt Blue less. White’s 51 hits twice outside in Diagram 2. In Diagram 3, it hits only once, and even then Blue will have 9 return shots from the bar. After White moves 8/7*/1, Blue can hit back with 63, 62, 55, 53, and 52. Same deal with 54. In Diagram 2, White hits twice outside, while hitting only once in Diagram 3. With 54, however, White runs his rear checker all the way in order to hit inside. Blue gets 13 returns, but when he misses, the game is practically over. In Diagram 2, 42 and 41 both give White a clean hit with his rear checker. In Diagram 3, White can also hit, but must break his 8pt to pick and pass. To a lesser extent, 66, 65, 62, 61, and 52 all hurt Blue a little bit less in Diagram 3 than they do in Diagram 2.

Blue played bar/19, 15/13 Position ID: u90AQQH3bhgQAA Match ID: EQEAAAAAAAAE

Mike

Messages In This Thread

• 62 from the bar
  poseidon -- Wednesday, 23 January 2013, at 12:40 p.m.
  • 62 from the bar
    Taper_Mike -- Wednesday, 23 January 2013, at 5:59 p.m.
    • 62 from the bar
      smcrtorchs -- Wednesday, 23 January 2013, at 11:28 p.m.
      • 62 from the bar
        Taper_Mike -- Thursday, 24 January 2013, at 7:23 a.m.
      • 62 from the bar
        Michael Depreli -- Thursday, 24 January 2013, at 7:48 a.m.
        • 62 from the bar — Analysis of Temperature Map info
          Taper_Mike -- Thursday, 24 January 2013, at 10:28 p.m.