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31, hit or no hit?

Posted By: mtuhtan
Date: Sunday, 27 January 2013, at 3:14 p.m.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 113
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 119
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-ABA-CB-B---bBb--bbdaBb---:0:0:1:31:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 31


From my "International Challenges" match on DailyGammon (start of 25pt match so converted to moneygame).

I had a hard time comparing wins and gammon losses between hit and no hit scenario. Any tips for decisions like this one? (Some rule of thumb, or just lots of practice and reference positions?)

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