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Proper Cube Action?

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Tuesday, 29 January 2013, at 4:41 p.m.

In Response To: Proper Cube Action? (__1ERROR1__)

Can I ask you for your detailed calculation about TP or you just guess it by the help of reference positions ?

I cheated by using a match equity table. (http://www.bkgm.com/articles/GOL/demo/equity.htm - yeah, there are better, more modern ones than this, but it's good enough for my purpose)

Pass -> 0-8 -> 15a7a -> 16%

take/win -> 2-7 -> 13a8a -> 27%

take/lose -> 0-9 -> 15a6a -> 13%

Raw TP = risk/(risk+gain) = 3/(3+11) ~= 21%

Someday I may be able to do this in my head, but I'm far away from that right now. OTB I would have just reasoned: nothing special about this match score, but the fact that the cubee is way behind skews the Raw TP a down couple of percentage points.

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