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Quick EPC quiz

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Friday, 1 February 2013, at 6:20 a.m.

In Response To: Quick EPC quiz (Bob Koca)

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My intuition tells me that having checkers on all 6 points will have the least wastage, perhaps a bit over 11 or even 12 pips. The standard 3-3-3-2-2-2 closed board wastes about 9.5 pips.

A simple, first order calculation is to assume that each of your positions will pull off 2 checkers on every turn, so that position A is a 6-roll position; position B, 5 rolls; and so on. Then do the arithmetic.

Position Assumed
Rolls		 EPC Pip
Count		 Wastage
A 6 49 42 7
B 5 40 5/6 30 10 5/6
C 4 32 2/3 20 12 2/3
D 3 24 1/2 12 12 1/2

Doublets will incur increased wastage. If my intuition is correct, the increase will be on the order of 4 or 5 pips in position A. It is hard to say whether the wastage will be dramatically worse for positions like C and D, but it is likely to be a little worse. It is possible that you could roll 44 in position A and find that there is a gap there. More often, however, it seems that the guaranteed wastage given by 44, 55, and 66 in positions like C and D, means that doublets waste more there than in position A.

The fact that A and B will have more misses that C and D skews the numbers in the other direction.

None of this convinces me I should alter the ordering provided in my approximation.

Mike

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