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Should I stay or should I go?

Posted By: Chase
Date: Friday, 1 February 2013, at 10:08 a.m.

In Response To: Should I stay or should I go? (Michael Depreli)

In doing a lot of wild guessing and approximating in my head, I think it's a close call, with a slight edge to running now. In a nut shell, my thinking is that, since you can't clear both checkers, you're holding White either way. But if you stay, you're also holding yourself -- costing yourself about a full roll in a race you'd like to win. It's true that you may get hit by running now, but it's also true that you may get hit if you stay and are forced to run next time, and that you still win some games after being hit. I think all that adds up to making the run sightly better.

So, how to run? 18/14 18/16 holds White about as well as 18/12, with fewer shots. It's also the racing move I'd make if there were no contact. Finally, having committed to racing, I don't want to get stuck and hit if I roll 33, a fine racing roll, next turn, so moving up makes sense.

18/14 18/16.

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