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Gammons After Closeout

Posted By: David Rockwell
Date: Saturday, 2 February 2013, at 10:59 p.m.

In Response To: Gammons After Closeout (AP)

Start with this reference position. There are two extra checkers in the outfield with 20 pips to get home. This is worth approximately 40% gammons. Knowing this position should allow an educated guess of the gammon percentage for many other positions. The original position posted here has 5 extra checkers in the outfield with 38 pips to get home. Clearly there will be far more than 50% gammons.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 99
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 57
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBBBCCC-a-a--------bbbbbb-:1:-1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 97.013% (G:38.442% B:0.054%) 97.013% (G:38.442% B:0.053%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 2.987% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) 2.987% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
Cubeless Equities +1.3252 +2.6504
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+1.3138±0.0010 (+1.3128..+1.3149)
Redouble/Take:+2.6277 (+1.3138)±0.0021 (+2.6256..+2.6298)
Redouble/Pass:+1.0000 (-0.3138)
Best Cube action: Too good to redouble / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 19.3%
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38366800
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 5 minutes 37 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

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