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BGonline.org Forums
Bearoff against contact problem
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: Bearoff against contact problem (rew)
Date: Sunday, 3 February 2013, at 7:32 p.m.
5/1 is forced. White needs at least 65 pips to get off the gammon. That's about 9 rolls on average. If Blue plays safe, he'll typically get off in about 7 rolls. So Blue is a strong favorite to win the gammon, but it's not a lock.
If Blue rips 3, then the gammon is pretty much in the bag if Blue doesn't get hit. Even if Blue does get hit, he'll typically have 8 checkers off by that time, and so will still have decent winning chances.
To calculate the answer one needs some formulas and reference positions, which I don't have, but I'd go ahead and rip 3.
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