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One for the DMP Ninjas

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 5 February 2013, at 3:16 p.m.

In Response To: One for the DMP Ninjas (Michael Depreli)

This is tough. The natural inclination esp. at dmp is to hit when behind in the race and ask questions later. Let's look at the two hitting plays and see if we can come up with which one is best before we look at the non hitting play.

12*, 9 - This leaves 16 shots, 5 of those being double hitters. When missed we have 27 covers for the 4pt next turn.

12*, 5 - This leaves 18 shots, 2 of those being double hitters. When missed we have 27 covers for the 4pt next turn.

Well, that didn't seem to clarify much. I could note how the non covering rolls play ever so slightly better after 12*, 9 and in general how I like the more compact configuration that 12*, 9 gives compared to 12*, 5. If I had to pick one I'd pick continuing to the 9pt but on the surface it seems like they'll be relatively close.

Now, do we have to hit? We should question whether if we don't hit now will we almost certainly get more chances to hit things. The answer to this of course is yes. Our opponent doesn't get the blot to safety immediately with over half his numbers. It's more than that though since if we forgo the hit now and play 5, 2, we may not be ready to hit next turn either. A few plys ahead is where we need to put our focus.

I look at it imagining how each turn unfolds. Now we play 5, 2 and then our opponent tries to safety his checker in most variations. Next turn we probably won't hit either but break our 8pt in order to make our 4pt. After that if our opp. rolls a six we're ready to hit, if not he plays in his inner board. If he plays in his inner board we play our rearmost checkers and continue building our board as needed. We will leave one checker back for coverage and swing the other man around having enough timing to sit and wait in most variations. We should have a board and get at least a direct shot if not a double barring doubles from our opponent.

I'm not sure but it feels like we should wait to hit so 8/5 8/2 for me.

Stick

Messages In This Thread

• One for the DMP Ninjas
  Michael Depreli -- Tuesday, 5 February 2013, at 2:55 p.m.
  • One for the DMP Ninjas
    Stick -- Tuesday, 5 February 2013, at 3:16 p.m.
    • One for the DMP Ninjas
      Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 5 February 2013, at 3:31 p.m.
  • XGR+: One for the DMP Ninjas
    Timothy Chow -- Friday, 15 February 2013, at 1:26 a.m.