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Proper Cube Action 2

Posted By: Smcrtorchs
Date: Thursday, 7 February 2013, at 6:16 p.m.

In Response To: Proper Cube Action 2 (__1ERROR1__)

1) Double take

Double because anything including a hit and a fan should be a market loser. Volatility should be high.

Take because many things can happen: brown might anchor at the 3, yellow might a 12 or 24 after which he does not really hold a true advantage, brown will always have an ace point game in the worst case. Brown will have the opportunity to roll lucky doubles and equalize the game for as long as yellow has checkers behind and now yellow has 3 checkers behind. The same scenario might happen with lucky rolls that are not double. Yellow is in front in the score and the cube is getting high, so he must be cautious. All in all the take seems clear to me despite of the gammons.

2) Double take

Takepoint should be the match equity of the trailer at -3-11. -3 -9 is the closest score I know where the trailer has 16% of MWC. So I am going to assume that -3-10 should be around 88 and -3-11 around 91.

Now let's try and calculate brown's winning chances. I am going to assume that brown will hit around 7% percent of the time before white starts his bear off phase. From this 7% he should win around 5.5%. Brown should have a chance to hit yellow after that of around 5-6% as the 4 point is open. I am not sure, but I am going to average it at another 5.5% From those games brown should win around 4.5 so this makes us a 10%. Well if my MWC guess was correct it should be a take.

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