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How would you work out this cube action OTB?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Friday, 8 February 2013, at 12:46 a.m.

In Response To: How would you work out this cube action OTB? (Michael Depreli)

White's take point is 16%. Hard to be sure but I think White has that. Blue is a favorite to miss and then White will usually clean up the blot; after that White just has to scramble home, and since Blue hasn't locked up a six-prime yet and White still has a four-point board, I'd estimate White's chances at around 20% in this variation. If Blue hits then White's chances drop, but I don't think they drop below 10%.

Is it a double? We have some gammon chances here and I hate to give them up. Might be a technical error but I'd hold the cube here.

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