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RO

Posted By: Petter Bengtsson
Date: Tuesday, 19 February 2013, at 4:45 p.m.

In Response To: RO (Philippe Michel)

When you said there was some problem with the XGIDs in Mike's post, I copied the XGID from Timothy's post. It seems like that was not a good idea. :)

Here's a rollout without a capped cube of the cube action before rolling 5-5, and also a rollout of the 5-5 checker play.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 153
5 point match
pip: 151
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--a-DBBB--dC---c-dBb----:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:5:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 62,58% (G:16,85% B:0,57%) 62,43% (G:17,91% B:0,57%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37,42% (G:6,68% B:0,34%) 37,57% (G:7,40% B:0,41%)
Cubeless Equities +0,347 +0,742
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0,564±0,011 (+0,552..+0,575)
Double/Take:+0,462 (-0,102)±0,015 (+0,447..+0,477)
Double/Pass:+1,000 (+0,436)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 15,9%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13579
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100,0%
Take Decision confidence:100,0%
Duration: 26 minutes 03 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 153
5 point match
pip: 151
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--a-DBBB--dC---c-dBb----:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:5:10
Blue to play 55

1.Rollout120/15(2) 9/4*(2) eq: +0,947
Player:
Opponent:		72,48% (G:18,26% B:0,57%)
27,52% (G:4,98% B:0,24%)		Conf.: ± 0,002 (+0,944...+0,949) - [100,0%]
Duration: 1 hour 30 minutes
2.Rollout120/10(2)eq: +0,933 (-0,013)
Player:
Opponent:		75,90% (G:9,34% B:0,29%)
24,10% (G:2,37% B:0,08%)		Conf.: ± 0,002 (+0,931...+0,935) - [0,0%]
Duration: 1 hour 29 minutes
3.Rollout19/4*(2) 6/1*(2) eq: +0,924 (-0,023)
Player:
Opponent:		68,47% (G:37,70% B:0,44%)
31,53% (G:5,92% B:0,28%)		Conf.: ± 0,002 (+0,922...+0,926) - [0,0%]
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
4.Rollout19/4*(2) 8/3(2)eq: +0,919 (-0,028)
Player:
Opponent:		69,23% (G:28,82% B:0,90%)
30,77% (G:5,27% B:0,19%)		Conf.: ± 0,001 (+0,917...+0,920) - [0,0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 50 seconds
1 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13579
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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