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BGonline.org Forums
The "I need to go to bed cube"
Posted By: John O'Hagan In Response To: The "I need to go to bed cube" (neilkaz)
Date: Wednesday, 20 February 2013, at 5:25 p.m.
Does the trailer have a take? OTB, I'd estimate that the trailer's takepoint ATS is 29% + 57% of Neil's g's (with the total not to exceed 40% since that's the takepoint if trailer auto recubes on his next shake) less recube vig. I think Neil wins about 25% g's here so the takepoint is 40% less recube vig. Neil's 4-cube takepoint is around 28% and I'll assume 80% efficiency for the trailer ATS which lowers the takepoint to around 31%.
Can White win this often? Looks close but I think so. White has control of the outfield and figures to be a big fav to hit whichever checker Neil moves into the outfield and then be in position to go after the other one once Neil dances. The dead checkers on the ace hurt his chances in the bearoff but he still has enough chances to take the cube, IMO.
Should the leader double? It's not a very volatile position. D6 is a big market loser but that's about it. Another factor to consider is that most players will take too loosely when trailing ATS so Neil might get a bad take later.
I'll vote for ND/T.
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