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DQ: The safe is better than the bold

Posted By: mamabear
Date: Saturday, 23 February 2013, at 9:05 p.m.

In Response To: DQ: The safe is better than the bold (leobueno)

This has a bit of a "prisoner's dilemma" look to it: Should Blue try to shoot his way out of jail, or wait till his sentence is up? The fact he has two prisoners behind a five-prime, with neither at the edge, and also is behind in the race, suggests waiting. And if he could wait safely, say with an ace to play, making the 23 point, he probably should.

(If you've seen the ancient World Cup tapes, there was a similar position where 24/23 was better than 24/22, trying to escape or anchor at the edge. What has escaped me at the moment is where I recorded it, LOL)

But since he can't anchor, there is some chance he will get run over immediately, kind of like he's not just in prison, he's on death row and there's been no word yet from Gov. Kasich. So I'd hit, 8/4* as a way of buying time to roll that reprieving ace. If I get hit back it's OK as long as I make an anchor on the rebound from the bar.

Was there something else...oh yeah, the 3. I don't like continuing to the ace point, because then I'm stuck with a misplaced blot there if it isn't hit. My natural inclination is to play 13/10 and make an all-out attempt to push him back to the ace point and counterprime him, and that's what I'd be likely to do over the board. But five blots is a lot, so don't do that. Have more sense than I would, and play 15/12 with the 3.

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