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65R-21$-31 vs 65R-41$-31

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Saturday, 23 February 2013, at 9:44 p.m.

In Response To: 65R-21$-31 vs 65R-41$-31 (mtuhtan)

The only two plays worth considering in either position are H and P.

Without saying which play is actually better, I'd note that the relative value of H compared to P should be higher in the second position. In the first position, White has a good 6 from the bar (11/5*) if you hit, and White's offense is stronger in the second position because her outfield builder is further advanced.

O.K., so what would I actually play? In the second position I'd certainly hit. In the first position I'm also inclined to hit but I'm less sure. I won't be too surprised if P comes out ahead of H in the first position. Blue does have a race lead and making a point may consolidate that advantage more effectively than getting into a blot-hitting contest.

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