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65R-21$-31 vs. 65R-41$-31

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Saturday, 23 February 2013, at 10:14 p.m.

In Response To: 65R-21$-31 vs 65R-41$-31 (mtuhtan)


1O ' ' '1X4X '3X ' '1X6O

2X ' ' ' '5O '3O ' ' '4X
65$-21$-31
Position ID: 0HPkATDgc/ADIA Match ID: cIkFAAAAAAAA


1O ' ' '1X4X '3X1X ' '6O

2X ' ' ' '5O '3O ' ' '4X
65$-41$-31
Position ID: 0HPhATDgc/ADIA Match ID: cIkFAAAAAAAA

Hitting with 31 is correct on the second roll in reply to both 21$ and 41$. On the third roll, after escaping a checker with an opening 65R on the first roll, hitting is weaker for two reasons.
  1. You are 11 pips farther ahead in the race.
  2. When you have two checkers back, hitting on the 20pt allows you to slot a high anchor with tempo. You are threatening to: a) escape, or b) anchor. When you have only one checker back, your blot cannot be used as part of an anchor. You can only try to escape.

In addition, hitting in the position on the left, gives your opponent a good 6 from the bar. In the position on the right, a 6 from the bar will be awkward. Your opponent will have a choice to leave shots in both outfields, or else to run his blot down to his 3pt.

As a bonus, hitting in the position on the right takes away most of the point-making rolls offered to your opponent by virtue of having a blot on his 9pt. In this regard, the blot on his 11pt, in the position on the left, does not provide as many point-making rolls to your opponent. Hence, a tempo hit is less urgent.

In short, I would hit after 65R-41$-31. The decision after 65R-21$-31 is probably much closer, but I would make the 5pt.

Mike

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