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DQ: The safe is better than the bold *Rollout*

Posted By: leobueno
Date: Sunday, 24 February 2013, at 3:49 a.m.

In Response To: DQ: The safe is better than the bold (leobueno)

	is gnubg score: 0 pip: 132 Unlimited Game Beaver pip: 159 score: 0 is leo
XGID=-a--aBD-C----CbA-bbbcb-AA-:1:1:1:43:0:0:2:0:10
to play 43

1.	Rollout1	15/12 8/4*	eq: -0.493
	Player: Opponent: 32.06% (G:8.04% B:0.41%) 67.94% (G:32.71% B:3.35%) Conf.: ± 0.022 (-0.515...-0.471) - [100.0%] Duration: 31 minutes 23 seconds
2.	Rollout1	8/4* 4/1*	eq: -0.540 (-0.047)
	Player: Opponent: 29.97% (G:7.89% B:0.30%) 70.03% (G:30.47% B:2.75%) Conf.: ± 0.017 (-0.557...-0.523) - [0.0%] Duration: 50 minutes 18 seconds
3.	Rollout1	13/10 8/4*	eq: -0.616 (-0.123)
	Player: Opponent: 31.05% (G:7.84% B:0.44%) 68.95% (G:38.34% B:6.88%) Conf.: ± 0.021 (-0.638...-0.595) - [0.0%] Duration: 34 minutes 02 seconds
4.	Rollout2	15/8	eq: -0.618 (-0.125)
	Player: Opponent: 27.08% (G:6.00% B:0.27%) 72.92% (G:31.15% B:1.29%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.631...-0.604) - [0.0%] Duration: 42 minutes 25 seconds
5.	XG Roller	15/11 8/5	eq: -0.667 (-0.174)
	Player: Opponent: 26.08% (G:5.09% B:0.22%) 73.92% (G:31.52% B:1.82%)
6.	XG Roller	8/1*	eq: -0.719 (-0.226)
	Player: Opponent: 24.69% (G:5.26% B:0.17%) 75.31% (G:32.87% B:2.54%)
7.	XG Roller	15/12 13/9	eq: -0.721 (-0.228)
	Player: Opponent: 27.09% (G:5.54% B:0.28%) 72.91% (G:38.23% B:3.56%)
8.	XG Roller	15/11 13/10	eq: -0.729 (-0.236)
	Player: Opponent: 26.81% (G:5.53% B:0.28%) 73.19% (G:38.19% B:3.71%)
1 361 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 23485271 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply 2 360 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 23485271 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 0, leo 0

Move number 12: leo to play 43

gnubg	132
leo	159
Position ID: 2G1jACKw5+AEKA Match ID: UQkOAAAAAAAE

• leo moves 15/8

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		-0.563
	31.7 7.9 0.2 - 68.3 26.2 1.5
Cubeful equities:
	2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.	No double	-0.455
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+1.455
3.	Double, take	-1.778	-1.323
Proper cube action:		No redouble, take (47.6%)

Alert: very bad move ( -0.114)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	15/12 8/4*	-0.501
			32.4 8.3 0.5 - 67.6 33.7 3.4 -0.635 -0.501 0.3 0.2 0.1 - 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.008 0.011
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			877 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 671758065 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	8/4*/1*	-0.540 ( -0.038)
			29.9 7.7 0.2 - 70.1 30.6 3.0 -0.659 -0.540 0.3 0.2 0.0 - 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.009 0.011
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			872 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 671758065 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	13/10 8/4*	-0.603 ( -0.102)
			31.8 8.4 0.6 - 68.2 39.0 6.7 -0.732 -0.603 0.5 0.3 0.1 - 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.017 0.024
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			360 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 671758065 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	4	R	15/8	-0.615 ( -0.114)
			26.8 5.9 0.3 - 73.2 30.7 1.0 -0.718 -0.615 0.4 0.3 0.0 - 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.011 0.015
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			361 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 671758065 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	5	2	15/11 8/5	-0.634 ( -0.132)
			27.5 6.6 0.2 - 72.5 32.8 1.8
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	6	2	8/1*	-0.690 ( -0.189)
			26.0 6.2 0.1 - 74.0 33.8 2.4
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	7	2	8/4* 6/3	-0.702 ( -0.201)
			31.6 7.8 0.4 - 68.4 45.1 7.2
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	8	2	8/5 8/4*	-0.718 ( -0.217)
			29.7 7.9 0.4 - 70.3 42.6 7.0
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• DQ: The safe is better than the bold
  leobueno -- Saturday, 23 February 2013, at 6:24 p.m.
  • DQ: The safe is better than the bold
    Stick -- Saturday, 23 February 2013, at 7:36 p.m.
    • DQ: The safe is better than the bold
      leobueno -- Saturday, 23 February 2013, at 9:48 p.m.
  • DQ: The safe is better than the bold
    mamabear -- Saturday, 23 February 2013, at 9:05 p.m.
  • DQ: The safe is better than the bold
    Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 23 February 2013, at 10:25 p.m.
    • DQ: The safe is better than the bold
      Chase -- Sunday, 24 February 2013, at 12:39 a.m.
  • DQ: The safe is better than the bold *Rollout*
    leobueno -- Sunday, 24 February 2013, at 3:49 a.m.