My simple OTB methodology is this: White needs 13 crossovers to get home, plus one more to bear off. We have 3 checkers off, so we need 12 crossovers to win. Considering that we will have more wastage than usual (because we will play safe), the gammon is a close thing. The risk of blotting with 44, 55, and 66 next turn, or later when we are unable to roll a 1, 2, or 3 on either of the next two turns, is worth the reward represented by bearing off a checker now. Counting pips leads to a let certain result. White needs 62 pips to come home, plus an extra half roll to bear off. Blue’s pip count is 43. Should he strip down to 4 checkers on the 4pt? It’s a close call, but with holes in White’s board, I’d still likely play 6/4 6/off. Mike | ||||||||||||
