These might be worth rolling out.
Ray briefly considered 13/8 6/4, considered 20/15 13/11 for a while, but settled on 24/22 20/15.
         
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 16
pip: 149 | 17 point match
Crawford | pip: 165
score: 13
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---a-BCBB---eC---d-eA---B-:0:0:1:25:13:16:1:17:10 |
| Blue to play 25 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | 20/18 13/8 | eq: +0.226 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52.90% (G:16.46% B:0.51%)
47.10% (G:12.60% B:0.78%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | 13/11 8/3* | eq: +0.214 (-0.012) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 51.56% (G:17.92% B:0.58%)
48.44% (G:14.52% B:1.20%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller+ | 20/15 13/11 | eq: +0.214 (-0.012) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52.56% (G:15.91% B:0.51%)
47.44% (G:13.64% B:0.98%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller+ | 13/6 | eq: +0.205 (-0.021) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 51.55% (G:17.05% B:0.54%)
48.45% (G:12.19% B:0.79%) | |
|
| 5. | XG Roller+ | 24/22 8/3* | eq: +0.198 (-0.028) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 51.20% (G:17.04% B:0.56%)
48.80% (G:13.40% B:0.85%) | |
|
| 6. | XG Roller+ | 24/22 13/8 | eq: +0.192 (-0.034) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 51.45% (G:15.97% B:0.53%)
48.55% (G:12.07% B:0.59%) | |
|
| 7. | XG Roller+ | 24/22 20/15 | eq: +0.188 (-0.038) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 51.76% (G:14.94% B:0.49%)
48.24% (G:13.01% B:0.59%) | |
|
| 8. | XG Roller+ | 13/8 6/4 | eq: +0.185 (-0.041) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 51.13% (G:15.86% B:0.59%)
48.87% (G:13.74% B:1.02%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
Mochy considered 11/7 9/5(2) 6/2, 11/7 6/2(3), 9/5(2) 7/3(2), and 11/7 9/5(3). He settled on 11/7 6/2(3).
   
    
| | White is Player 2
score: 13
pip: 160 | 17 point match
Crawford | pip: 94
score: 16
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=ab-BBBCB-C-Ab---ab-cbb----:0:0:1:44:16:13:1:17:10 |
| Blue to play 44 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 11/7 9/5(3) | eq: +0.484 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 74.72% (G:42.17% B:5.98%)
25.28% (G:0.98% B:0.04%) | Conf: ± 0.007 (+0.477...+0.491)
Duration: 1 minute 09 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 11/3 9/5(2) | eq: +0.452 (-0.032) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 73.25% (G:42.73% B:6.28%)
26.75% (G:1.25% B:0.05%) | Conf: ± 0.008 (+0.444...+0.460)
Duration: 58.0 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 9/5(2) 7/3(2) | eq: +0.445 (-0.040) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 72.35% (G:43.73% B:6.90%)
27.65% (G:0.22% B:0.01%) | Conf: ± 0.006 (+0.439...+0.451)
Duration: 1 minute 22 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 11/7 6/2(3) | eq: +0.434 (-0.050) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 72.39% (G:40.80% B:5.10%)
27.61% (G:1.31% B:0.05%) | Conf: ± 0.008 (+0.426...+0.442)
Duration: 1 minute 24 seconds |
|
| |
1 Truncated at 7 moves using 3 ply.
324 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
First 2 moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Remaining moves: 2 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
Mr Majestyk's variant:
| | White is Player 2
score: 13
pip: 160 | 17 point match
Crawford | pip: 95
score: 16
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=ab-BBCBB-B-Bb---ab-cbb----:0:0:1:44:16:13:1:17:32 |
| Blue to play 44 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | 11/7(2) 6/2(2) | eq: +0.511 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 75.96% (G:37.53% B:4.42%)
24.04% (G:0.84% B:0.02%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | 11/7 11/3 9/5 | eq: +0.458 (-0.053) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 73.51% (G:41.00% B:5.58%)
26.49% (G:1.21% B:0.04%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller+ | 11/7(2) 9/5(2) | eq: +0.453 (-0.057) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 73.44% (G:39.14% B:5.27%)
26.56% (G:1.51% B:0.05%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller+ | 9/5(2) 6/2(2) | eq: +0.449 (-0.061) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 73.04% (G:39.34% B:4.83%)
26.96% (G:1.11% B:0.03%) | |
|
| 5. | XG Roller+ | 11/3 6/2(2) | eq: +0.446 (-0.065) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 73.02% (G:40.03% B:5.02%)
26.98% (G:1.43% B:0.04%) | |
|
| 6. | XG Roller+ | 11/3(2) | eq: +0.436 (-0.075) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 72.32% (G:41.53% B:5.80%)
27.68% (G:1.03% B:0.04%) | |
|
| 7. | XG Roller+ | 7/3(2) 6/2(2) | eq: +0.433 (-0.077) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 72.30% (G:40.93% B:5.19%)
27.70% (G:1.23% B:0.04%) | |
|
| 8. | XG Roller+ | 11/7 9/5 6/2(2) | eq: +0.429 (-0.081) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 72.31% (G:37.29% B:4.52%)
27.69% (G:1.65% B:0.04%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross