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How to think here?

Posted By: Karl Frogner
Date: Wednesday, 27 February 2013, at 5:35 p.m.

In this position :

Match to 7, Blue leads 4-3
Blue on roll. Cube action?

White	1
Blue	5
GNUBg Id: AQAAKAAAAAAAAA:UQngADAAIAAA XGID=--AA--------------------a-:1:1:1:00:4:3:0:7:8

Blues winchances for rolls with not include 1 --> 25/36

With Snowie MET :

RDW, 7-3/7, Win = 100%

NRDW, 6-3/7, Win = 82%

Gain = RDW - NRDW = 18%

NRDL, 4-5/7, Win = 40%

RDL, 4-7/7, Win = 0%

Risk = NRDL - RDL = 40%

RDP = Risk/(Risk+Gain) = 40/58 = 20/29

Common for Winchances(25/36) and RDP(20/29) :

Win Chances (25/36)*29 = 725/36*29

RDP (20/29)*36 = 720/29*36

--> 725 > 720 <=> Winchances > RDP --> Conclusion; its a ReDouble.

With Woolsey MET :

RDW, 7-3/7, Win = 100%

NRDW, 6-3/7, Win = 83%

Gain = RDW - NRDW = 17%

NRDL, 4-5/7, Win = 40%

RDL, 4-7/7, Win = 0%

Risk = NRDL - RDL = 40%

RDP = Risk/(Risk+Gain) = 40/57

Common for Winchances(25/36) and RDP(40/57) :

Win Chances (25/36)*57 = 1425/36*57

RDP (40/57)*36 = 1440/57*36

--> 1425 < 1440 <=> Winchances < RDP --> Conclusion; its NoReDouble.

So different conclusion with different METs.

How to think about this position then?

Messages In This Thread

• How to think here?
  Karl Frogner -- Wednesday, 27 February 2013, at 5:35 p.m.
  • How to think here?
    neilkaz -- Wednesday, 27 February 2013, at 5:48 p.m.
    • How to think here?
      Karl Frogner -- Thursday, 28 February 2013, at 3:05 p.m.
      • How to think here?
        Stick -- Thursday, 28 February 2013, at 3:17 p.m.