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Simple concept(?) this intermediate doesn't get

Posted By: bb766
Date: Tuesday, 5 March 2013, at 2:45 a.m.





White is Player 1

score: 4
pip: 14
7 point match
pip: 8
score: 3

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-BC------------------bb---:1:1:1:00:3:4:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

I take...and lose the match. I set up the position in Gnubg. I'm not too savvy with the program, but I think it's saying I had a 26.6% chance of winning the game. Disregarding the match score, it says double, take. But at this score, taking was a BIG mistake. I also tried it with many other scores...sometimes it's a take,sometimes not.

0-0, it's a take

3-3, it's a pass

4-4, it's a take...?

But if opponent is up 4-3, then it's not even a double?!

Anyone care to give a few sentences to explain this, and more specifically-at this score (4-3 and cube at 2), what percent chance of winning this game do I need to have before accepting a double?

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