If we refer to volunteering a homeboard blot as "paying now," I decided to pay later with 24/23* 5/4(3). Of the pay-later plays, the computer favors 24/23* 2/1*(3), forcing the blot forwards. However, at the top of the rollout is the pay-now play 5/4(3) 2/1*, which gives White only 11 rolls to send another checker back. Note that 5/3 2/1*(2) also pays now and gives White only 11 rolls to hit, but doesn't fare as well in the rollout as 5/4(2) 2/1*(2). Not sure why; maybe the cleanup is harder.
Anyway, one message seems to be that sending another White checker back just gives her too much time to hang around and wait for us to cough up another blot.
         
 
       
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 100 | | 1 point match | pip: 49
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-aE--C-----------cbbbbbaA-:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:1:10 |
| Blue to play 11 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 5/4(3) 2/1* | eq: -0.542 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 22.90% (G:1.25% B:0.07%)
77.10% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf: ± 0.005 (-0.547...-0.537)
Duration: 55 minutes 46 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 5/4(2) 2/1*(2) | eq: -0.555 (-0.013) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 22.24% (G:1.59% B:0.05%)
77.76% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf: ± 0.005 (-0.560...-0.550)
Duration: 51 minutes 29 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 24/23* 2/1*(3) | eq: -0.560 (-0.018) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 22.00% (G:2.09% B:0.12%)
78.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf: ± 0.006 (-0.566...-0.554)
Duration: 1 hour 35 minutes |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 5/3 2/1*(2) | eq: -0.571 (-0.029) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 21.43% (G:1.67% B:0.05%)
78.57% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf: ± 0.006 (-0.577...-0.565)
Duration: 44 minutes 56 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout1 | 24/23* 5/4(3) | eq: -0.575 (-0.033) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 21.24% (G:2.28% B:0.16%)
78.76% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf: ± 0.006 (-0.581...-0.569)
Duration: 1 hour 40 minutes |
|
| 6. | Rollout1 | 24/23* 5/4 2/1*(2) | eq: -0.599 (-0.057) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 20.07% (G:2.25% B:0.12%)
79.93% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf: ± 0.006 (-0.605...-0.593)
Duration: 1 hour 15 minutes |
|
| 7. | Rollout1 | 5/4 2/1*(3) | eq: -0.604 (-0.062) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 19.80% (G:1.52% B:0.08%)
80.20% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf: ± 0.006 (-0.610...-0.598)
Duration: 54 minutes 12 seconds |
|
| 8. | Rollout1 | 5/1* | eq: -0.612 (-0.070) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 19.42% (G:1.77% B:0.07%)
80.58% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf: ± 0.006 (-0.618...-0.606)
Duration: 53 minutes 44 seconds |
|
| 9. | Rollout1 | 5/3(2) | eq: -0.629 (-0.087) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 18.55% (G:2.00% B:0.22%)
81.45% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf: ± 0.005 (-0.634...-0.624)
Duration: 47 minutes 02 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross